75% of Likely Midterm Voters Say Prediction Markets Create Confusion and 39% Say a Wrong Prediction Could Undermine Their Confidence in the Official Results
WASHINGTON, July 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Online prediction/betting markets have already attracted nearly $200 million in wagers on the 2026 elections. But a more than half who identified themselves as likely midterm voters say these markets are bad for democracy, according to a new national survey of 1,000 U.S. adults commissioned by the Partnership for Large Election Jurisdictions (PLEJ).
The poll found concern across party lines about the potential effects of election prediction markets on public understanding and trust. Among likely 2026 midterm voters:
- 75% say prediction markets create confusion
- 60% say they fuel inaccurate election information
- 45% believe people participating in prediction markets may have access to insider information about election outcomes
Confusion extends to what prediction market odds actually represent. Nearly four in ten likely midterm voters believe that prediction market odds reflect either the number of votes currently counted, or official projections issued by state and local election officials. But the reality is different. Prediction market prices only reflect the activity and expectations of market participants—not votes cast, votes counted, or official election results.
The potential effect on confidence is significant: 38% of likely midterm voters say that if an official election result differed from prediction market odds, it would reduce their confidence in the outcome.
“Prediction markets are becoming part of the election information environment—but they are not election results,” said Carolina Lopez, PLEJ Executive Director. “What we saw surrounding the Los Angeles mayoral primary may be a preview of what election officials will encounter across hundreds of races nationwide. Large election jurisdictions are preparing now to distinguish speculation from official information, address confusion quickly, and communicate clearly about how votes are cast, counted, and certified. That preparation starts with understanding what Americans believe and where the greatest information gaps exist.”
At the same time, likely midterm voters continue to place substantially greater trust in the officials responsible for administering elections. Nearly two-thirds express high trust in their state election officials, at 64%, and 61% express high trust in their local election officials. By comparison, fewer than one in four report high trust in news media, social media, or prediction markets for election information.
Together, the findings underscore the importance of clearly distinguishing between market speculation and official election information—and ensuring that voters know where to turn for accurate information about voting, vote counting, and certified results.
“When speculation, projections, and prediction markets compete for attention, voters need to hear directly from the state and local election officials responsible for administering elections,” Lopez said. “Clear, timely information from official sources helps the public understand the process and distinguish market expectations from actual election results.”
State and local election officials can take practical steps to reduce confusion and strengthen public understanding as online prediction markets become more prominent in the election information environment, including:
- Providing clear, accessible explainers—in written, video, and graphic formats—about how ballots are cast, collected, processed, counted, reported, and certified, as well as the safeguards built into each stage.
- Monitoring emerging questions, claims, and information trends so officials can identify potential confusion early and respond quickly with accurate, authoritative information.
- Maintaining open lines of communication with local, state, and federal partners, as well as media and community stakeholders, to coordinate information and ensure that voters’ questions are addressed in real time.
Together, these steps can help voters distinguish speculation and prediction market activity from the official voting and counting processes that determine election outcomes.
About the Polling
PLEJ commissioned SurveyMonkey to survey 1,037 American adults from July 16-19. 867 of those surveyed identified themselves as likely 2026 midterm voters. The polling has a margin of error of +/- 3%. For the full polling results, please contact media@taketheplej.org.
About PLEJ
PLEJ is a national, nonpartisan organization that provides a community of support, best practices, and peer-to-peer engagement among large election jurisdictions—the esteemed community leaders that work across the country to implement safe, secure, free, and fair elections nationwide. The PLEJ Network is currently comprised of over 170 member jurisdictions across 39 states (plus DC), and they collectively administer elections for over 140 Million Americans (about 40% of the U.S. population).
Additional Resources
- PLEJ Registration Link for Media Roundtable on Wed 07/29/26, 12p-1p ET
- PLEJ One-Pager on Speaker Lineup
View original content:SOURCE Partnership for Large Election Jurisdictions
