Data-driven outlook highlights stabilization in key categories in continued negative territory through 2027
WASHINGTON, July 1, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The latest Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America’s (WSWA’s) SipSource® Forecast, providing a forward-looking view of the U.S. spirits industry through the second quarter of 2027, continues to point toward a challenging operating environment for the spirits industry, though modest improvement is expected toward late 2026 and into 2027.
Powered by the industry’s most comprehensive depletion dataset—including sales information from 20+ major wholesalers, control state data, and multiple macroeconomic indicators—the SipSource Forecast delivers quarterly projections across major spirits categories and the total core spirits market (core spirits is the full spirits market, excluding spirits-based RTDs).
“While the spirits market continues to be pretty tough, the latest forecast suggests conditions may finally begin to stabilize over the coming year albeit while remaining in negative territory,” said Francis Creighton, WSWA President and CEO. “The data continues to reinforce the importance of disciplined business planning, targeted consumer engagement, and meeting consumers where they are as the industry navigates ongoing challenges.” nnThis data release builds on SipSource’s strong forecasting track record. Over the past 24 months, the forecast has consistently demonstrated exceptional predictive performance, achieving greater than 90% accuracy across published forecasts. The most recent forecast was particularly precise, delivering 99.8% accuracy for all Core Spirits when comparing the Q3 2025 forecast to actual Q1 2026 depletion results.
The latest SipSource Forecast provides quarterly projections of rolling 12-month 9-liter case depletion growth rates from Q2 2026 through Q2 2027 across seven major spirits categories and the total core spirits market. Those categories are Brandy/Cognac, Rum, Tequila/Agave, Vodka, U.S. Whiskey, Irish Whiskey, and Scotch Whisky.
Key Forecast Takeaways
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Total Core Spirits Show Signs of Modest Improvement: After posting a rolling 12-month depletion trend of -4.19% in Q1 2026, total Core Spirits are projected to improve to -3.91% by Q4 2026 and -3.68% by Q2 2027, signaling a slow but meaningful easing of category declines.
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Tequila/Agave Expected to Stabilize in Negative Territory: Following a sharp slowdown in early 2026, Tequila/Agave is forecasted to stabilize, with stronger performance in mid-tier price segments helping offset broader category weakness. While growth is expected to remain negative, the category is projected to show greater resilience than recent trends suggest.
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Vodka Projected to Outperform Broader Spirits Categories: Rum, Irish Whiskey and Brandy/Cognac are expected to underperform the broader core spirits market, while Vodka is forecasted to outperform. Despite those relative differences, all four categories are projected to remain in negative growth territory through 2026 and into early 2027.
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Whiskey Categories Positioned for Recovery: U.S. Whiskey and Scotch are expected to improve gradually as the market moves toward 2027. The forecast indicates that much of this recovery will be driven by “affordable luxury” price tiers, which are expected to outperform other segments throughout the forecast period.
Developed in partnership with industry experts and data scientists from management consulting firm Kearney and supported by VIP’s data infrastructure, the SipSource Forecast provides suppliers, distributors, and industry stakeholders with actionable insights into category performance, segment trends, and price-tier dynamics.
Subscribers can access detailed forecasts at the category, product class, and price-tier levels, providing forward-looking visibility into category performance and emerging trends.
To learn more about the SipSource Forecast or request access, contact Eric Schmidt.
About SipSource®
SipSource® is the wine and spirits industry’s leading source for distributor depletion and inventory analytics, providing timely market intelligence and forecasting tools that help industry stakeholders make informed business decisions. SipSource covers 70% of wholesale volume across all 50 states sourced directly from WSWA members. Learn more at sipsource.com.
About WSWA
Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America (WSWA) is the national trade association representing the wholesale tier of the wine and spirits industry. WSWA member companies are family-owned and operated, distributing over 80% of all wine and spirits sold in the United States. To learn more, please visit www.wswa.org or connect with us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
MEDIA CONTACT
Christy Moran
Senior Vice President, Communications & Marketing
christy.moran@wswa.org | (202) 669-3293
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SOURCE Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America
