New analysis shows how fiscal choices can raise—or lower—the cost of college, homeownership, retirement, and business investment
NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The nearly $40 trillion national debt may seem removed from Americans’ everyday lives, but its consequences are increasingly tangible. A new report from The Conference Board shows how rising debt and deficits can drive up borrowing costs, constrain economic opportunity, and weaken financial security for Americans at every stage of life.
The report, How the National Debt Affects All Generations of Americans, models five fiscal scenarios and translates their economic effects into real-world consequences for 1) a student financing college, 2) a family buying a home, 3) a future retiree relying on Social Security, and 4) a small business owner seeking to expand.
The analysis finds that reducing deficits can lower borrowing costs and improve the nation’s fiscal trajectory, while higher deficits and financial shocks can significantly increase the cost of student loans, mortgages, and business financing. The report also underscores the looming insolvency of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds and calls for bipartisan action to put the nation’s finances on a more sustainable path.
“The national debt is not just a number on the government’s balance sheet—it affects the financial decisions Americans make every day,” said David K. Young, President of The CEO Center at The Conference Board. “Higher debt can mean higher borrowing costs for families and businesses, fewer resources for national priorities, and greater uncertainty about programs Americans depend on in retirement. Policymakers have choices, but the longer action is delayed, the more difficult and costly those choices become.”
By the Numbers
- More than $39 trillion: Current US national debt.
- Approximately $116,000: National debt per American based on July 2026 US population.
- 154% of GDP: National debt projected by 2036 under the report’s baseline scenario.
- 180% of GDP: National debt projected by 2036 under the higher-deficit scenario.
- 21.6%: Increase in small-business loan payments in the event of a week-long default of the debt.
- 8.7%: Increase in modeled student loan costs under the same default scenario.
- Up to 6.7%: Increase in modeled housing costs under the default scenario.
- 2032: Year the primary Social Security retirement Trust Fund is projected to become insolvent.
Recommendations
To address the nation’s unsustainable fiscal outlook, the report recommends that policymakers:
- Establish a bipartisan fiscal commission in Congress charged with improving the Federal government’s long-term fiscal condition, moving the debt-to-GDP ratio toward a more sustainable level, and addressing the solvency of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds.
- Strengthen Social Security’s finances through a comprehensive package that considers benefit adjustments, additional revenues, protections for vulnerable retirees, and potential diversification of Trust Fund investments.
- Modernize Medicare and other major Federal health programs through reforms including value-based care, alternative payment models, improvements to Medicare Advantage, stronger primary care and care coordination, and streamlined regulation.
- Reform the Congressional budget process to improve timeliness and accountability, strengthen budget enforcement, restore greater regular order, and incorporate longer-term fiscal planning into Federal budgeting.
About The CEO Center
The CEO Center, founded in 1942 as the Committee for Economic Development, is the public policy center of The Conference Board. Members of The CEO Center are chief executive officers, key executives of leading US companies, and university Presidents. Collectively, they represent 30+ industries, over five million employees, and more than $2T in annual revenues. The nonprofit, nonpartisan, business-led policy center delivers Reasoned Solutions in the Nation’s Interest™.
TCB.org/CEO-Center
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the global, Member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization.
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SOURCE The Conference Board
