NEW YORK, Nov. 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Egan-Jones released a commentary examining why Grand Theft Auto VI, due November 19, may mark the end of an era of expensive video game development. The piece finds that artificial intelligence has cut the capital needed to develop and port games, and offers investors a framework for the shift.
Video games are a business of about $200 billion a year, six times the box office, and 85% of US teens play them, according to the commentary. Outside estimates put development of Grand Theft Auto VI at $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion, or $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion including marketing. Its predecessor, Grand Theft Auto V, earned about 30 times what it cost.
Egan-Jones believes owners of well-recognized intellectual property hold a major advantage, because familiar franchises can make marketing investment more successful. With development costs falling, these owners can open their franchises to anyone, license them broadly for a fee or royalty, or develop them in-house or with accountable partners. Egan-Jones expects owners most sensitive to tainting, such as Disney, to favor self-development or close partnerships.
For credit investors, the commentary describes a significant shift. Rather than funding a few large projects and studios, lenders may begin financing many smaller ones, which offers diversification but calls for more due diligence. Egan-Jones also expects growing demand to finance marketing, which it describes as generally safer than financing development because creditors sidestep the risk of “development hell.”
The commentary also points to pressure on established players. Developers such as BioWare and Ubisoft have closed or significantly reduced operations, and Egan-Jones writes that Microsoft’s studio acquisitions may have been poor investments given the shift in costs. It adds that platforms controlling product discovery should continue to benefit: players spent about $82 billion on mobile games through the App Store and Google Play in 2025, and Steam reached a record 43.5 million concurrent users on October 11.
Egan-Jones concludes that Grand Theft Auto VI is expected to be one of the largest launches in entertainment history and may still be the last of its kind. For lenders, the new model needs less financing over the long term.
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SOURCE Egan-Jones Ratings Co.
