Vistage Small and Midsize Business CEO Survey Reveals Growth Expectations Remain Stable Despite Pessimism About Current Conditions
SAN DIEGO, July 15, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Small and midsize business (SMB) CEOs’ confidence in the economy declined in the second quarter of 2026, according to the latest CEO Confidence Index from Vistage, a CEO coaching and peer advisory organization. The Index dropped 3 points in Q2 to 84.2, marking a pullback from the previous quarter and signaling a shift in sentiment as inflation and economic uncertainty intensify.
Vistage’s latest quarterly survey of SMB CEOs found that pessimism about current economic conditions has grown, though near-term expectations for revenue, profitability, and hiring have remained stable. Nearly half of CEOs now report that U.S. economic conditions have worsened compared to a year ago – a reversal of three consecutive quarters of improvement – although economic expectations for the next year have improved slightly from last quarter.
“Economic negativity is pushing the Confidence Index down as CEOs felt the real-time impact of a 4.2% inflation rate from May,” said Joe Galvin, Vistage’s chief research officer. “What’s important to understand is that we’re now at a new baseline. The Index is back at the three-year average and has effectively reset itself, creating a status quo in which uncertainty is the central economic theme. In today’s ‘Now’ economy, being prepared requires insight and expertise. Inflation, along with interest rates, tariffs, and geopolitical instability, continues to create a potentially volatile operating environment.”
Since 2003, Vistage has measured SMB CEOs’ sentiment on a variety of economic and business factors each quarter. ITR Economics’ rate-of-change methodology has confirmed the Vistage CEO Confidence Index is a leading indicator of the U.S. Industrial Production Index nine months in advance, providing a clear view into the future.
“Leaders are realizing this is the new normal and positioning for growth,” said Eric Post, Deputy Chief Economist at ITR Economics. “We’re expecting a hiring upturn in the second half of this year and into 2027. But CEOs shouldn’t lose sight of profitability – they need to focus on pricing appropriately and investing in efficiency, ensuring top-line growth reaches the bottom line.”
Q2 2026 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:
Economic pessimism surges as inflation takes center stage.
- 45% of CEOs report that U.S. economic conditions have worsened compared to a year ago, up 13 percentage points from Q1 and reversing three quarters of improvement.
- Only 19% report that economic conditions have improved, down 7 percentage points from Q1.
- Nearly 7 in 10 CEOs (69%) expect inflation to continue rising over the next 12 months, including 36% who expect inflation to accelerate at a faster pace than the past year.
- 29% of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve in the next 12 months, up from 27% in Q1. 26% expect it to worsen, down from 29%.
Near-term expectations remain stable across all major business indicators.
- 64% of CEOs expect increased revenues in the next 12 months, down slightly from 65% in Q1.
- 48% expect improved profitability, down 3 percentage points from Q1.
- The gap between revenue and profitability points to a margin issue rather than a demand problem as costs are mounting from several sources at once, including fuel and freight from the Iran war, higher wages from a tight labor market, and lingering materials from residual tariff effects.
CEO burnout continues to rise.
- Seven in 10 CEOs (70%) experience burnout or emotional exhaustion at least occasionally, with 29% reporting it frequently or nearly every day. That’s an increase from a year ago, when 24% reported burnout frequently or nearly every day.
Workforce strategies shift toward selective hiring and strategic reconfiguration.
- 50% plan to expand their workforce, virtually flat from Q1. However, hiring strategies have fundamentally shifted as CEOs make selective hires directly tied to revenue growth or delivery capacity.
- 11% expect their workforce to decrease in the next 12 months.
- 85% of CEOs are investing in development programs for managers and leaders.
- 60% of CEOs have integrated AI into their strategic planning process.
Cost pressures mount as input costs and price sensitivity surge.
- Over two-thirds (67%) of CEOs report moderate or substantial increases in input costs over the last quarter.
- Nearly 3 in 4 CEOs (74%) saw customer price sensitivity rise in Q2, potentially complicating pricing decisions.
- 38% plan to increase fixed investments over the next 12 months, holding steady from Q1 2026.
View the full results of the Q2 2026 Vistage CEO Confidence Index at: vistage.com/ceoindex.
About the Vistage CEO Confidence Index
Established in 2003, the Vistage CEO Confidence Index surveys small and midsize business CEOs, presidents, and business owners about the U.S. economy every quarter. The Q2 2026 Vistage CEO Confidence Index includes responses from 1,351 U.S. CEOs surveyed between June 1 and 15, 2026. Using ITR Economics’ rate-of-change methodology, analysis has revealed that the Vistage CEO Confidence Index is a leading indicator of the U.S. Industrial Production Index nine months in advance.
The Vistage CEO Confidence Index is recognized as the definitive voice of high-performing, high-integrity small and midsize business leaders. As a trusted resource, the Index provides world-class insights to inform decision-making for CEOs and other key leaders of small and midsize businesses. For more Vistage CEO Confidence Index results, visit vistage.com/ceoindex.
About Vistage Worldwide, Inc.
Vistage is the world’s largest CEO coaching and peer advisory organization. Since 1957 we’ve been guiding CEOs and owners of small and midsize businesses to greater success. It’s why Vistage member companies average 21+ years, while most U.S. businesses fail within five. Today, 45,000 members in 40 countries turn to Vistage to become better leaders who drive better outcomes. Learn more at www.vistage.com.
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SOURCE Vistage Worldwide, Inc.
