- Bain forecasts 8.75% sales growth over the Black Friday-Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend versus last year, outpacing its overall holiday season growth forecast of 4.5%
- 70% of US consumers plan to shop Black Friday and/or Cyber Monday, up from 64% in 2025
NEW YORK, Oct. 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Retail sales over the Black Friday through Cyber Monday weekend are expected to top $85 billion, accounting for 8.5% of 2026 US holiday sales, according to Bain & Company’s new forecast. Sales growth during the weekend is expected to rise 8.75% year over year, outpacing Bain’s total holiday season growth forecast of 4.5%.
Using proprietary credit card data from Pyxis, Bain’s consumer intelligence division, the report finds that Black Friday is likely to remain the leading sales day of the holiday season as consumers continue to treat it as the official kick-off. In fact, 64% of consumers surveyed plan to shop Black Friday, up from 55% in 2025. Cyber Monday has also continued to gain popularity and is expected to crack the top five sales days this year, as more shoppers say they will do their holiday shopping online. Forty-four percent of consumers surveyed plan to shop Cyber Monday, compared to 41% last year.
Bains’s survey of US consumers finds that 70% plan to shop Black Friday and/or Cyber Monday, up from 64% last year, and more than 90% plan to shop either those days or another major sales event. Still, the final two weekends before Christmas carry just as much weight. In 2025, six of the top 10 sales days landed in that window, finds Bain.
Overall, Bain forecasts US holiday sales will top $1 trillion for the first time, driven by in-store sales and rising e-commerce.
“Black Friday and Cyber Monday are becoming increasingly important battlegrounds for retailers, especially as US consumers prioritize value and deal-heavy shopping days,” said Aaron Cheris, Global Head of Retail at Bain & Company. “Retailers that capitalize on these crucial sales days with personalized promotions, can’t-miss events, and targeted campaigns will set themselves up well for the rest of the holiday shopping season.”
Media contacts:
Mike Simon (New York) — mike.simon@bain.com
Ann Lee (Singapore) — ann.lee@bain.com
Gary Duncan (London) — gary.duncan@bain.com
About Bain & Company
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Notes to Editors
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SOURCE Bain & Company
