LONDON, Feb. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — New data from Novuna Business Finance reveals the first green shoots of a potentially new upward trend in small business growth forecasts. Following a worrying 18-month period since mid-2024, when the percentage of small businesses predicting growth fell for five-consecutive quarters – to a five-year low of 25% – January 2026 sees an upturn, with 27% of enterprises predicting growth for the first three-months of 2026.
Whilst only a slight upturn on the final months of 2025, the new Novuna Business Finance data brings to an end an 18-month slide in growth forecasts, the longest-running slump recorded during the Business Barometer’s 12-years of tracking research.
There were quarter-on-quarter improvements in small business growth forecasts in nine industry sectors, including: manufacturing (27%), construction (22%), retail (32%), finance /accounting (37%), legal services (45%), medical services (34%), transport/distribution (29%), property/real estate (28%) and agriculture (21%).
In terms of the funding profile of various enterprises, small businesses that made use of asset finance (47%) and invoice finance (45%) were more likely to predict growth.
Around the UK, the regional picture showed a country split in half, with growth forecasts rising in six regions and falling in five. London continued to evolve as the region where most small businesses forecasted growth this quarter (40%), and the biggest quarter-on-quarter rises were recorded in the West Midlands and Scotland. Conversely, growth forecasts in the East Midlands and North West continued to fall – and in the North East they fell to the lowest level since Spring (Q2) 2024.
Joanna Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance commented: “Our new research shows an upturn in small business growth forecasts this quarter, after an 18-month period when they were in freefall. Our data over 12-years suggests small business confidence often starts well at the start of a year, only to fall away in the quarters that follow. So, it is too early to say whether the positive news for this quarter is the start of a sustained upward trend. But for now, it is a positive start to 2026, and we note that those enterprises looking for flexible and tailored funding solutions are also more likely to follow an upward trajectory. This is something we will examine in more detail as the year unfolds.”
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