Advisors’ M&A Outlook Remains Strong for 2026 Despite Rising Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds
BOSTON, Jan. 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Capstone Partners, a leading middle market investment banking firm, in conjunction with its partner IMAP, a leading global investment banking advisory firm, released its annual Trends in Global M&A Survey Report, with insights from M&A advisors across the world. This report combines Capstone’s in-depth investment banking knowledge with proprietary data obtained from 106 participating IMAP merger and acquisition (M&A) advisors across 54 countries. Conducted between November 10, 2025, and November 24, 2025, the survey captures sentiment at a pivotal moment in global middle market M&A, providing insight into M&A market activity throughout 2025 and anticipated dealmaking conditions in 2026.
Key Findings:
- On a global basis, advisors ranked the geopolitical environment as the most likely factor to impact their clients’ business operations in 2026. This marks a stark contrast to previous survey studies, where advisors ranked inflation as the largest influence on client operations for three consecutive years between 2022 and 2024.
- As uncertainty around trade and macroeconomic volatility continues to settle, the vast majority (72.6%) of advisors surveyed expect M&A deal flow to increase in 2026. While this marks a 6.4% decline year-over-year (YOY), investment bankers’ optimism for M&A activity has largely persisted.
- While interest rate cuts in Europe, North America and parts of Asia throughout 2024 and 2025 have largely kept investment bankers’ private equity (PE) M&A outlook elevated for 2026—with the lion’s share (45.3%) of total investment bankers surveyed expecting sponsor dealmaking to increase in 2026—recent trade policy volatility has seen this figure decline 5.7% compared to 2025 expectations.
- Several external factors are slated to continue challenging the global M&A market, with most (56.6%) advisors ranking market volatility/economic uncertainty as the top factor expected to delay or inhibit deal closings in 2026. Notably, 40.6% of advisors also cited trade uncertainty/tariff policies as a leading external element to curb M&A in 2026.
- Due to recent trade policy volatility and subsequent supply chain bottlenecks, advisors expect global expansion (+7.8% YOY) and vertical integration (+5.1% YOY) deals to gain traction in 2026. In contrast, expectations for recapitalizations (-12% YOY) and capital raises (-10.7% YOY) have fallen amid advisors’ expectations that M&A deal activity will improve throughout 2026.
- Buyers have become increasingly selective in their M&A pursuits, prioritizing target companies with robust financial visibility. Of note, 66% of total investment bankers surveyed indicated that recurring revenue will be the most important characteristic to acquirers in 2026.
- Roughly a quarter (25.5%) of advisors anticipate M&A transaction multiples in 2026 to moderately rise compared to 2025. However, most (66%) advisors foresee little to no change in M&A multiples in 2026.
- Advisors identified realistic deal valuations as the most prominent element expected to help sellers achieve a successful M&A transaction in 2026. This represents a close alignment with the nearly half (48.1%) of advisors anticipating excessive valuation expectations to hinder deal closings in 2026.
Through this research, Capstone Partners and IMAP have tracked notable impacts on the global M&A market, current economic environment, as well as M&A advisors’ expectations on pricing trends and regional opportunities and risks moving forward into 2026.The report also provides an analysis of sell-side M&A considerations for middle market business owners looking to pursue a liquidity event.
To access the full report including a breakout of the results by industry and region, click here.
ABOUT CAPSTONE PARTNERS
For over 20 years, the firm has been a trusted advisor to leading middle market companies, offering a fully integrated range of investment banking and financial advisory services uniquely tailored to help owners, investors, and creditors through each stage of the company’s lifecycle. Capstone’s services include M&A advisory, debt and equity placement, corporate restructuring, special situations, valuation and fairness opinions and financial advisory services. Headquartered in Boston, the firm has 175+ professionals in multiple offices across the U.S. With 12 dedicated industry groups, Capstone delivers sector-specific expertise through large, cross-functional teams. Capstone is a subsidiary of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ:HBAN). For more information, visit www.capstonepartners.com.
ABOUT IMAP
IMAP is an International Mergers and Acquisitions Partnership with a 50-year track record, more than 450 M&A professionals worldwide and a presence in 51 countries. IMAP has closed over 2,200 transactions valued at $130 billion in the last 10 years and is consistently ranked in the world’s Top 10 M&A advisors (Refinitiv) for mid-market transactions. For more information, visit www.imap.com.
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SOURCE Capstone Partners
