UK Holiday Online Spending Set to Hit Record £26.9 Billion in 2025, Adobe Forecasts
Today, Adobe released the findings of its 2025 UK holiday online spending forecast covering the period from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, 2025. Based on Adobe Analytics data, the report provides the most comprehensive view into the U.K. digital economy by analysing hundreds of billions visits to of U.K. online retail sites and tracking 100 million SKUs in 18 product categories.
UK shoppers expected to spend a record £26.9B this holiday season
- Adobe forecasts a record £26.9 billion will be spent online this holiday season (Nov 1st – Dec 31st), up 4.2% compared with the same period in 2024.
- This season’s spending is expected to surpass the record £25.8 billion set in 2024 marking the third successive year of positive year-on-year growth in online spending over the holiday period.
Black Friday set to be biggest spending day of the year with £1.19 billion spent, kicking off bumper Cyber Weekend
- Online spending during Cyber Weekend (Black Friday to Cyber Monday) is projected to grow 4.4% YoY to £3.8 bn, capturing 14.2% of the season’s total revenue.
- Black Friday will again be the biggest online shopping day of the season with consumers spending £1.19 bn (up 6.6% YoY).
- Cyber Monday is expected to be the second highest online spending day of the year with £963.6 m expected to be spent (up 4.1% YoY) followed by Sunday, 30 Nov with £895.8 m spent (up 2.6% YoY).
- Boxing Day is also forecast to cross the half-a-billion-pound threshold with £510m expected to be spent (up 4.6% YoY).
Biggest discounts to hit on Black Friday and Cyber Weekend for most retail categories
- Seasonal discounts are expected to be comparable to 2024 levels, which, when combined with the deflation of online prices throughout this year across many popular gifting categories, has the 2025 holiday season poised to offer consumers better value-for-money than in years past.
- Discounts will be at their deepest for most items over Cyber Weekend. Deal hungry shoppers should plan their shopping around the below dates:
- Thursday 27th November: Appliances (15% cheaper than normal levels)
- Black Friday (28th November): Personal care products (18% cheaper), Apparel, Toys (17% cheaper), Furniture (13% cheaper)
- Saturday 29th November: Computers (23% cheaper)
- Cyber Monday (1st December): TVs (21% cheaper)
- Boxing Day (26th December): Sporting goods (15% cheaper)
Even with deep discounts, shoppers will up their usage of Buy Now, Pay Later to spread the cost of Cyber Weekend and holiday spending
- Total online BNPL spend during the 2025 holiday season (Nov 1 –Dec 31) is forecast at £3.8 bn, up 5.4% on last year’s £3.6 bn.
- Black Friday is forecast to see £132.1 million spent using BNPL, up 12.7% YoY
- Cyber Monday is forecast to be the largest day ever for UK BNPL with shoppers spending £159.3 million through the services, up 4.2% on the previous record of £152.8 million set on Cyber Monday 2024.
Retro Tech Gets a Resurgence
- The resurgence of noughties nostalgia isn’t limited to fashion, culture, and listening to Oasis. Technology from the pre-smartphone era has also seen a resurgence over 2025 and is expected to perform well during the holiday season.
- The electronics category is expected to see elevated spending during the holiday season (60% higher than the daily average from January – September), some retro tech items are expected to experience a significantly higher holiday boost compared to their averages across the year. In particular:
- Point and Shoot Cameras: +125% over normal levels
- Vinyl Records and Record Players: +115%
- CD and MP3 Players: +105%
GenAI Traffic Soars with More Growth Expected for the Holidays
- Traffic from GenAI sources, like ChatGPT or Google Gemini, to retail sites has skyrocketed throughout 2025, with momentum building into the holiday season as consumers increasingly turn to the services for gift inspiration, product recommendations and comparisons, price comparisons and more.
- In September 2025 referrals to retail sites from GenAI sources were up 730% compared with September. 2024
- In November and December, referrals from GenAI sources are projected to continue rising, with expected growth of 410%, compared with the 2024 holiday season.
- Traffic is expected to spike during major shopping days, peaking on Cyber Monday.
- Black Friday and Boxing Day are forecast to increase traffic share by 310% and 750% compared with the same days last year.
Mobile remains the favoured device for online shopping, and its dominance is growing
- Mobile devices will continue to add to their majority share of online spending during the 2025 holiday season, setting a new record for amount spent and share of spend.
- £15.3 bn will be spent via mobile devices in November and December, up 5.5% on last years’ £14.5 bn.
- Mobile revenue share during the holiday season is forecast to be 56.7% of total online spending, edging up from 56% last year.
Despite trading down to cheaper goods throughout 2025, consumers are expected to trade up to more expensive goods during the holiday season
- Low levels of consumer confidence, rising in-store costs for groceries and household staples and concerns about personal finances caused cost conscious consumers to substitute their regular items for cheaper alternatives across the first 9 months of 2025.
- The share of units sold of the cheapest goods across major categories has increased YTD in 2025 compared to 2024:
- Furniture and Bedding: +8.9%
- Apparel: +4.5%
- Home & Garden: +3.9%
- Personal Care Products: +3.3%
- Appliances: +2.3%
- Over the same period the share of the most expensive goods decreased across those categories by an average of 4.8%.
- Conversely, during the holiday season shoppers are expected to opt for more premium and higher priced goods as they treat themselves and buy gifts for others. The share of goods sold for the most expensive items is expected to increase by 15% in November and December compared to YTD averages (Jan-Sept).
- Categories that will see the biggest increases in revenue share higher-priced goods include:
- Personal Care Products: +41%
- Sporting Goods: +36%
- Electronics: +32%
- Tools and Home Improvement: +19%
- Appliances: +14%
Click-and-Collect remains a go-to for last-minute shoppers
- This fulfilment method has been used in 10.0% of orders so far this year. This is up slightly from 2024 when it was used in 9.8% of orders, and 2023 when it was used in 8.0% of orders.
- Click-and-collect continues to play its biggest role later in the season, as shoppers look to avoid shipping delays. Peak utilization is expected around December 15th – 16th at 13%–16% of orders.
Marketing Channels: Organic Search Leads, Social Delivers the Fastest Growth
- Organic search has driven the highest share of revenue from January–September 2025 with 25.4% of online spend converting from organic search traffic.
- Over the holiday season, Organic search revenue share is expected to decline 8-10%.
- Direct Traffic has also performed strongly, accounting for 24.7% of spend, narrowing the gap with Organic Search and overtaking Paid Search since last year.
- Revenue share from Direct Traffic is expected to hold steady, growing 1% – 2% over the holiday period, showing shoppers gravitate towards trusted retailers for holiday gifting.
- Paid Search (21.0%) is down between January and September 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, but remains an important channel for online retailers.
- Paid Search share of revenue is expected to receive a 9%–11% boost over the holiday period, as retailers up their paid search spend across the season
- Affiliates & Partners (including social influencers) accounted for 18.5% of revenue share from January – September 2025, growing on an annual basis
- Over the holiday period, Affiliates & Partners (including influencers) are expected to post gains of 4%–5% compared with last year
- Social Networks, while still under 5% of revenue share, have delivered the strongest year-to-date growth (+17% YoY).
- That growth is set to accelerate over the holiday period with revenue share projected to climb by 40%–42% YoY in November and December.
Instagram and TikTok’s Traffic Share Surges while Facebook Declines
- Instagram’s traffic share is forecast to see the biggest boost among social platforms during the holiday season, climbing 50%–52% compared with the 2024 holiday season
- TikTok is projected to rise 42%–45% YoY, reinforcing its increasingly important role in driving traffic to retail sites.
- YouTube’s share is expected to rise 27%–29% YoY, compounding the strong gains throughout 2025.
- In contrast, Facebook’s share of revenue is expected to decline 4%–5% YoY in retail traffic share over the same period.